Major signal released, China will completely adjust the economic layout (depth)
Date：2023-07-05 | Hits：653
01
The first half of the Chinese economy is over, and the second half of the economy is opening up!
Just like playing games, the second half of the play and the first half must be different, no matter which side you are, you must adjust the play in order to adapt to the new rhythm of the game.
The world is in the midst of great change, and every major event can only accelerate the change. The pandemic has accelerated elimination, but it has also accelerated innovation.
How does the logic of making money change from the first half to the second?
To put it simply: in the first half, our income came from "capital" growth; In the second half, our revenues came from "operational" growth.
First of all, what is capital? For example, land, houses, stocks, various advantageous resources (minerals, factories, etc.), that is, things that can be enjoyed, these things are often of great significance in the early stage of a country's development, because they can activate the capital of the whole society, and can also increase leverage to drive round after round of economic development.
If any country, enterprise or individual wants to develop rapidly, it must solve the problem of primitive capital accumulation and must go through a process of primitive capital accumulation. This process is like "horse racing". Once the productivity has been liberated, it will increase the full horsepower straight forward, who the horsepower of the big who seize the ground is more, belongs to the barbaric growth stage, "horse enclosure" era mainly has two major dividends:
The first big dividend: the "head dividend", for manufacturing and real estate.
The second big dividend: the "traffic dividend", is for the Internet industry.
These two dividends have enabled China to complete three major infrastructure tasks:
The first is physical infrastructure, mainly by real estate;
The second is the network infrastructure, mainly rely on the Internet;
The third is the abundance of products, mainly by manufacturing.
The completion of the three major infrastructure tasks has enabled China to complete the original accumulation of capital. In the first half of China's economy, that is, in the 40 years from 1979 to 2019, the core problem we have solved is the original accumulation process of capital.
It is worth mentioning that looking at the world, only China's original accumulation process was completed without external aggression and colonial plunder, while the developed capitalist countries such as Britain/the United States/Japan all relied on external colonial plunder to complete and accelerate this process.
Why was there World War I and World War II? It is because the capitalist countries are beginning to divide the spoils among themselves and the emerging capitalist countries (USA/Germany, etc.) need to redivide the world.
So how can China complete this process in just 40 years? This is due to the globalization of modern trade, especially after our accession to the WTO, the rapid penetration of domestic products around the world, which is one of the important reasons for our original accumulation.
But now that we have completed the initial accumulation process of capital, we cannot stay in this state. What should China do next?
As we said at the beginning: China's economic growth is shifting from "capital" driven to "operational" driven.
So what is operation? It is to rely on management, optimization and allocation to revitalize these resources, so that these resources can play a greater social value.
For example, there is no shortage of houses now, what is lacking is how to use the idle houses; Now there is no shortage of products, what is lacking is how to get the right products to the right people.
That is to say, the era of horse racing is over, and then we must manage your one acre and three points of land. The era of savage growth is over, and the future is an era of intensive farming; The era of the gold rush is over, and the future is the era of alchemy.
Before we all rely on the growth of capital to make money, such as how many times the price of housing, the appreciation of stocks, but now the era of rapid growth of capital has passed, if you want to follow the previous logic, occupy a pit to wait for appreciation, tantamount to waiting for a rabbit.
According to this logic, how to measure the future of a city, a company, and an individual? Depending on the operating income of this subject:
For example, the GDP of many cities is still high, but the public revenue is low, which indicates that the city is on the decline;
For example, the market value of many listed companies is still quite high, but the profits are getting smaller and smaller, and even start to lose money, which indicates that the enterprise is also on the decline;
For example, many first-tier cities have tens of millions of real estate, but the annual income is less than 200,000, and the income is not enough to maintain the operation of the family, indicating that the person is also living beyond his means.
Although the lean camel is bigger than the horse, once the trend has occurred, it is difficult to reverse and even accelerate... These subjects will one day encounter a crisis, and then begin to sell their capital (property) to survive until they die.
Of course, in this process, although the original accumulation of some people and enterprises is very low, their operating income is very high.
In the future, a large number of individuals and enterprises that rely on operations to make money will be born, they do not rely on capital to enjoy the success, rely on new management, new models, new channels to make money, they are the mainstay of the second half of the Chinese economy.
Where there is great destruction, there is great success. A group of people fall, there must be a group of people stand up.
The most expensive tax in the world is called the Cognition Tax.
People's life is paying for cognition!
02
The first half and the second half of the Chinese economy have their own tasks:
In the first half, driven by capital, we must first set up a skeleton for society through the innovation of "model + skill".
In the second half, driven by the operation, it is necessary to fill the "product + content" again to make the society flesh and blood.
First capital, after operation, this is often the two stages of personal and enterprise development, which is also a "hard after soft" process:
For example, a few years ago, we embarked on a massive project to build Bridges, roads and houses, which is a kind of hard infrastructure construction for the purpose of doing a good job in society